Quelle: WSI
: Issue 03/2026
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
C. Katharina Spieß, Harun Sulak
Hidden Employment Potential. How Big is it – and How Can it be Activated?
Abstract
Against the backdrop of the demographic-driven decline in the labour force potential, this article examines which potential could be better utilised in the future and to what extent they could mitigate this decline. Various scenarios are presented to this end. The discussion of the different measures focuses on the labour supply of women, especially mothers with young children. The article addresses societal norms regarding maternal and paternal employment. Subsequently, it discusses the specific challenges faced by mothers with children of different age groups. The findings indicate that a particularly high potential lies in better integrating women with a migration background into the labour market. In addition, the causes of lower labour supply of older women are analysed. Furthermore, the article outlines the potential of increasing the labour supply of immigrants. The possibility of raising the labour supply of older workers is also discussed. The article concludes with policy recommendations on how the potential could be activated. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Anke Mönnig, Marc Ingo Wolter, Christian Schneemann, Michael Kalinowski
The Labour Market in 2040. Skills Shortages Remain
Abstract
This report is based on the results of the eighth wave of the Qualifications and Occupations in the Future (QuBe) long-term projection up to 2040. In addition to an aging and declining population, Germany is faced with a slow economic growth. Both the size of the labour force and the number of people in employment are declining in the long term. Labour shortages will therefore not disappear due to stagnation. The structural change is not keeping pace with the retirement of the baby boomer generation. Almost one in three jobs is affected by a shortage of skilled workers. This is likely to have a particularly severe impact on the healthcare sector, the construction industry, and the home and social services sector. The shortages are likely to persist in the future and could further intensify. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Klaus Dörre, Jorin vom Bruch
Labour Shortage – a Resource of Power?
Abstract
Demographic developments and shortages of skilled workers and labour have temporarily led to a structural increase in the power of wage earners. Forward-thinking companies have made concessions in terms of working conditions and pay in their competition for qualified workers. The present article situates this development within the framework of the Jena Power Resources Approach. It distinguishes between three phases of labour market development, which were associated with the decline in mass unemployment, demographic changes, and the spread of precarious employment. The current crisis in the industrial model heralds a new phase characterised by job losses in key sectors and a simultaneous shortage of labour in others. According to the article’s core thesis, the actors involved in organised labour relations must prepare themselves for a new cycle of social conflict that will be characterised by a simultaneity of inequality. Labour shortages will become a collective power resource only if trade unions’ ability to act upon everyday working life is reestablished and, above all, made tangible. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Malte Lübker
Skills Shortages and Wage Growth. Workers in the Land of Plenty?
Abstract
Based on data from the German Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit), this article examines how a shortage of skilled workers affects wage growth by occupational category for the period from 2019 to 2024. The initial result shows that, overall, there is indeed a positive correlation. However, the effect size is very small, with an additional wage increase of around 0.25 % per year for a one-standard-deviation increase in the measure for skill shortages. Furthermore, the positive correlation is largely attributable to developments in the nursing and healthcare professions, while no significant effect can be demonstrated for the remaining occupational fields during the observation period. This leads to the conclusion that there is no mechanistic, market-force-based correlation. Due to the asymmetric distribution of power in the labour market, collective bargaining power and – as in the case of nursing – political interventions are a prerequisite to achieve better working conditions in occupations with a shortage of skilled workers. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Stephan Bischof
Skills Mismatch and the Role of Labour Shortages
Abstract
Mismatches between workers and jobs are widespread in the German labour market, particularly in the context of growing skill shortages that limit the availability of adequately qualified labour. This article examines the extent of different types of mismatch (qualification level, field of education, and skill level) and analyses how educational background, sector, and employment in shortage occupations relate to skill deficits. The results show that tertiary-educated workers are less likely to be underskilled, while no significant differences are observed across sectors. Individuals working in shortage occupations are more likely to be underskilled. However, when differentiated by occupational requirement level, this association holds only for occupations at the skilled level. The findings suggest that employers in shortage occupations are increasingly relying on underskilled workers, which could strengthen the bargaining power of employees in occupations affected by labour shortages. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Mattis Beckmannshagen, Annika Sperling
Underemployment in Times of Labour Shortages. Potential of Increased Employee Flexibility
Abstract
The increasing demand for workers due to demographic changes currently dominates many labor market policy debates. Based on data from the Socio-Economic Panel, underemployment in Germany – that is, the proportion of employees who would like to increase their working hours – has declined since 2010, mirroring the rise in demand for workers. Regardless of this trend, underemployment is particularly common among mothers, which points to a connection between the responsibility for care work within the household and the inability to realise desired working hours. Flexible working hours or the option to work from home could potentially help to reconcile caregiving responsibilities with employment. This article shows that while mothers have access to flexible working arrangements more frequently than childless women, they have such access less often than fathers. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Maria Metzing, Julian Jäger, Jannes Jacobsen, Niklas Harder, Friederike Römer
Large Numbers Weakly Represented. Skilled Workers without German Citizenship in Bottleneck Occupations
Abstract
The ongoing shortage of skilled labour poses a major challenge to the German labour market. Forecasts predict a decline in the working population by up to 12 % by 2060, particularly in occupations facing labour shortages. Against this backdrop, people without German citizenship are becoming increasingly important. They are overrepresented in occupations heavily affected by the labour shortage. Nevertheless, the results indicate that skilled labour shortages have not yet led to an above-average increase in income and thus to a noticeably better bargaining position for neither domestic nor foreign employees. Given the lower level of union membership among people without German citizenship, the question arises as to whether there is a problem of representation of the interests of these groups. In order to secure and expand the potential of these workers for the labour market and, at the same time, for trade unions in the long term, labour market policy measures should be specifically geared toward integration and professional development. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Jonathan Diesselhorst, Inga Jensen
Housing Policy Through the Back Door? Employee Housing in the Field of Tension Between Market, Power and Co-Determination
Abstract
In view of the increasing shortage of skilled workers and tense housing markets, employee housing is experiencing a renaissance after having lost much of its importance since the 1970s. Historically, employee housing served to retain workers and strengthen employer power. Today, the growing structural market power of employees is forcing companies, particularly in sectors with difficult working conditions and low wages, to provide housing as a location factor. The design of employee housing is subject to negotiation processes and the power resources of employees and employers. Against this backdrop, trade unions are calling for greater co-determination and socially just solutions to ensure affordable housing for employees on low and medium incomes. At the same time, it is evident that employee housing cannot fundamentally solve the housing issue ; this requires comprehensive reforms to housing and land policy. more … (in German)
WSI-MITTEILUNGEN 3/2026
Anna Rosenberg, Robert Drewnicki
Job Transition Platforms. Job Transitions in Industrial Transformation
Abstract
This article introduces the current debate on securing skilled labour through job transition platforms in the context of industrial restructuring, exemplified by a works council–initiated transition process between two industrial companies in the Berlin–Brandenburg region. Drawing on the experiences of the involved works councils and HR representatives, the article identifies key challenges and success factors of such processes. In particular, the importance of well-aligned matching of qualification profiles and clear communication between the parties involved becomes evident. Finally, the article derives requirements for the design of job transition platforms from a trade union perspective. more … (in German)